BIG

I know you know. You know it. We know it. The media world is in crisis and is undergoing a real revolution.

In sports, it’s worse (or it’s peculiar, if you prefer that term): it’s increasingly difficult to make a profit from the economic activities of a sports media, whether it’s print, audio or video.

However, most TV networks have realized that the only way to do this is to broadcast live (quality and high-level) sport. Opinion programs now have a place on the Web…

Yesterday, a few hours before the start of the NBA finals series, the Wall Street Journal reported that the Silver Circuit had reached – or will reach in the coming days – a new TV deal south of the border: NBC, ESPN and Amazon will pay more than $76 billion to broadcast NBA games together on their respective platforms for 11 seasons. That’s $76 billion!

Goodbye TNT (Warner Bros. Discovery)…

We are talking about $6.91 billion per season, distributed as follows:

$2.6 billion through ESPN (Disney), which will continue to present the finals games. The games will also be accessible through the new streaming site that ESPN will launch in 2025. In the end, Disney will pay more for fewer games, as I understand it?

2.5 billion through NBC, which plans to broadcast fifty games per season on NBC (the regular network, since NBC Sports no longer exists), and then another fifty on Peacock, its streaming network.

1.8 billion through Amazon, which will broadcast regular season games, playoff games, the new season tournament and playoff games.

The NBA is expected to earn two to three times more than before in streaming revenue.

What does this mean for the NHL?
As we all know, Gary Bettman and the NHL often take a cue from the NBA when it comes to “innovation.”

The rights recently sold for $76 billion in the NBA are U.S. domestic rights. In the NHL, those rights are owned by ESPN, TNT and ABC through 2027-28. That’s not going to change yet…

But the Canadian national rights will expire in two years almost.

Given that the NBA struck a deal a year before the end of its current U.S. national contract, there’s reason to believe that within a year we’ll know the new broadcasters of NHL national games in Canada. As in the NBA…

And according to excellent sources, these types of deals are not negotiated at the corner of a table a month in advance. Negotiations have already begun, and should result in a deal to be announced sometime in June 2024 (if all goes well).

Rogers gambled and hit the jackpot single-handedly 10 years ago. The company, which had already dealt with Quebecor, subsequently sold the French-Canadian national rights to TVA Sports.

From what I’ve heard, the deal is likely to be much more complex two years from now.

The NBA will air on one traditional TV network, one specialty network and three streaming sites when the new deal goes into effect south of the border. From what I’ve heard, the NHL will follow that model as early as 2026-27 in Canada.

We will need an English-speaking partner that is in the sport and available coast-to-coast on TV. There are only two possible partners – Rogers or Bell. Some people believe the two could join forces, as is currently the case with MLSE, but everyone I’ve spoken to is hesitant to believe that. At least for the time being.

Watch out! Not a few people thought TVA Sports would win the game over Francophone 10 years ago….

There will undoubtedly be a partner who will be exclusively in the streaming business, and not in traditional TV. Given that Amazon just picked up some Canadian national rights through Rogers a few weeks ago (for the last two years of the current contract), I’d put my money on a Rogers – Amazon partnership if Mise-o-jeu offered the line, hehe….

But you’re interested in the Franco-Quebec market, right?

Maybe we’ll give Amazon the luxury of presenting all 22 national games in French on their platform, but I think we’ll still have a traditional French-speaking TV partner in Quebec. And there are only two real options once again – Bell and Québecor.

From what I hear, the relationship between Quebecor and the NHL is excellent right now, and both the NHL and Quebecor would like to renew their agreement. The problem: Quebecor is aware that it paid too much for the rights 10 years ago, and the NHL will be looking for more money in its next deal, not less.

I’m also told that the relationship between Rogers and Quebecor (really) isn’t as good as it was in 2014. But hey, relationships are always rehashed….

Could Bell (RDS) become Rogers’ partner for the Quebec territory? It’s possible… but since the two companies work together in Quebec, why shouldn’t they work together nationally? Good question.

Ah, yes… I wouldn’t be surprised to see Bell (Noovo) or Quebecor (TVA) broadcast some games on traditional Quebec TV, should the company get the rights. NBC will do so south of the NBA border. Although Québecor is currently afraid to do so, in order not to reduce the number of TVA Sports subscribers…

Prediction: within a year, we will know that Rogers, Amazon and RDS will broadcast NHL national games in Canada for the next ten years.

Why RDS and not TVA Sports?

Why a Rogers-Bell deal in Quebec and not in Canada? Simply because I think Rogers will outbid Bell for the rights… but only RDS will broadcast NHL games in French in Quebec. Pierre-Karl Péladeau said not long ago that the survival of his sports channel depended on the CRTC, and we are still waiting….

I don’t see how the channel – which has not yet secured its future – could at this very moment negotiate rights to be sold for more than what it is currently spending (too much money in its eyes). Even knowing full well that if it leaves all the space to Bell, it could end up being a disaster for her. #TVASports #Vidéotron #Hélix #ClubIllico #Vrai

In short, I see national field hockey returning to RDS… and occasionally airing on Noovo.

Ah yes… I also think the CBC will keep its traditional (and free) “Hockey Night In Canada“. Gary Bettman wants to keep it, it’s already produced by Sportsnet (Rogers) and Rogers pockets all the revenue from the CBC broadcast. As for the CBC, we’re talking about a state broadcaster that is quite happy to have big ratings (even without revenue) on Saturday nights. #YourMandate

If my prediction turns out to be correct, it will be interesting to see if TVA Sports can survive without the huge expense of rebroadcasting NHL field hockey or if, instead, the channel will once again become irrelevant.

Regional rights: the real battle in Quebec
The real battle(TV ) in field hockey – especially with the Canadiens, who never make the playoffs – will be with the French-language regional rights currently held by Bell (RDS).

The NHL allows its teams to sell most of their games regionally, so it is ultimately up to the Habs to decide where to broadcast 60 of their 82 regular games. It should be noted that most of these games will continue to be broadcast on RDS, as Bell also co-owns the team….

But…

I’m pretty sure that some games will be streamed on Crave and/or on an app that the Habs might launch themselves(Allo Réjean!). The Habs just announced that a TV series about their rebuild will be available exclusively on Crave….

“Forcing fans to subscribe to a streaming service provided by one of your co-owners is the current trend. So is selling games on a per-game basis, or subscribing to a new platform over which you have 100% control.

And this regional deal will be negotiated at the same time as the national rights. Talks have probably already started.

In short, if it seems complex to you now to say: on Saturdays I watch field hockey on TVA Sports (or Sportsnet or CBC) and the other games I watch on RDS, you should know that in two years it will be even more complex. I really hope that some games will not be available on traditional TV, and that many people will turn a blind eye. But hey, the other leagues are already there, and the NHL won’t escape.

If you haven’t been following along, I invite you to reread this text a second time. It’s heavy and complex, but it makes sense. Take my advice.