Quebec is going to lose residents: this wall that threatens your wallet

The elephant in the room

It’s a rare occurrence, almost taboo: Quebec is about to shrink. Not geographically, no, but demographically. It’s the elephant in the room that everyone sees, but no politician seems willing to talk about. In concrete terms? While Canada’s population is set to explode in the coming decades, ours will stagnate or even begin to decline. This is not science fiction, it’s the cold hard figures from Statistics Canada. And this significant trend will hit our economy hard. We are talking here about a political weight that is crumbling within the confederation and, above all, a number of workers that is melting like snow in the sun in the face of an army of new retirees. The thorny question is therefore simple: how are we going to pay for all this?

Dizzying figures

Let’s face it. According to the medium growth scenario, Canada’s population will grow from 41.7 million in 2025 to 49 million in 2050. And Quebec? We currently have 9.058 million people. By 2030, we will fall below the 9 million mark, landing at a painful 9.047 million in 2050. Basically, a net decline of 11,400 people is expected over 25 years. Meanwhile, our neighbors are not sitting idle. Ontario will gain nearly 3 million citizens and Alberta more than 2 million, dangerously approaching Quebec’s demographic weight with its projected population of 7.22 million. The result? Our political weight in Canada will drop from 21.8% to 18.6%. Fewer people means potentially fewer federal transfers and less influence in Ottawa. The driver of this decline is simple: more people are dying than being born. Over the next 25 years, there will be 615,000 more deaths than births. Even net immigration, estimated at 603,600 people, will not be enough to fill the gap. With a birth rate of 1.33 (compared to 1.25 in Canada), natural renewal is no longer happening.

Meanwhile, the bill is skyrocketing

This stagnation would not be so serious if we were not one of the fastest aging societies in the world. Every year, 100,000 more people retire. This means fewer people to keep the machine running, but healthcare costs that are skyrocketing. Standard & Poor’s has already downgraded Quebec because of the increase in borrowing for our infrastructure. Debt is ballooning, and the financial markets are watching us. And on a daily basis? Inflation hurts. Metro has announced that price increases could exceed the usual 2 to 3% as early as next week. This is a hard pill to swallow when you consider that the total compensation of the grocery store’s senior executives jumped 15.9% to $16.3 million in 2025. This is in stark contrast to households that are struggling to make ends meet.

For businesses, it’s a headache. Ninety-eight percent of Quebec businesses are SMEs, the real lifeblood of our economy. Yet they are desperately short of workers. Policies to reduce the number of temporary foreign workers are causing concern, as these employees have become essential, from Montreal to the regions.

Hello politicians, is there a plan?

Faced with this wall, the silence of aspiring leaders is deafening. What do Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, Christine Fréchette, Bernard Drainville, Éric Duhaime, Ruba Ghazal, and Charles Milliard have to say? If the Parti Québécois takes power, how will it manage independence with a declining population and skyrocketing healthcare costs?

And that’s not all. With Donald Trump threatening to scrap the free trade agreement (CAFTA) and impose tariffs, the future of our forestry workers is becoming increasingly precarious. Who has a strategy for housing? For productivity? For maintaining our public services without indebting future generations?

We’re going to have to talk about the economy and finances before 2026. If we’re being promised better hospitals and new roads, the least we deserve is an explanation of how they plan to pay for them with fewer taxpayers. Per capita GDP may increase, of course, but the state’s ability to care for an aging population is the real challenge of tomorrow. Dear candidates, the floor is yours.

According to the source: ici.radio-canada.ca Created by humans, assisted by AI.